andrew burke





It's Sigmoidal, Stupid!

Posted on: 2007-11-26

From Tim (not Bill) O'Reilly: It's not exponential, it's sigmoidal

He talks about what people often see as exponential growth (just going up faster and faster) is often actually sigmoidal growth, in other words an 'S' curve, where things level off after a certain point.

This happens all over the place, especially in technology. Some examples:

So next time you see something that looks like it's experiencing huge growth, keep in mind that it's likely to level off at some point. Also, don't get too excited by the prospect of 'exponential growth' - there are limits to everything.

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